Are the Wait Times at Disney Accurate? Posted vs Actual Disney Wait Times

Wait times at Disneyland and Walt Disney World refer to the posted wait time by Disney on the app or the signs around the park. Disney calculates this wait time based on a few internal factors and then guests can view these wait times to decide which attractions they are willing to wait in line for or which ones to utilize Lightning Lane Multi Pass at Disneyland or Lightning Lane Multi Pass at Disney World. But how accurate are the wait times at Disney?

Many guests have had the experience of waiting in line for an attraction that may have had a posted wait of 45 minutes but ended up waiting closer to 30 minutes. So how do we figure out what the actual wait time is vs. the posted wait time? There are a few times of day and specific attractions at both Disneyland and Walt Disney World that tend to inflate wait times. You can also visually estimate waits by looking at the queue for particular rides to get an idea of how accurate the wait times are.

Let's walk through posted vs. actual Disney wait times at both Disneyland and Walt Disney World to give us an idea of when wait times are accurate and when they are not! This information will help with planning your day at the theme parks and maximizing your time spent riding attractions.

Why Would Disney Inflate Wait Times?

The most obvious answer is often the most simple: guests will be pleasantly surprised to find out they waited less time than the actual wait time posted! This just naturally increases guest satisfaction to notice, “Wow, I waited less than the posted time!” when they get off an attraction. This is one reason why you will see inflated wait times at both Disneyland and Walt Disney World.

Guests are always going to be happier if they wait less than the posted time vs. waiting more. Disney would rather gamble that guests will wait less time rather than underestimating a wait time and they end up waiting longer. This would create a lot of unhappy guests.

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Does Disney Increase Wait Times At Park Close?

Another reason that Disney may inflate wait times is towards the end of the night when they want to discourage guests from hopping in line before park close. As long as you are in line for a ride before park closing, you get to stay in line and experience that attraction even if the park is technically closed. This is one of the most common experiences I have had with inflated Disney wait times! Often the actual wait time can be less than half of the posted wait time at park closing.

Disney can also use the posted wait times for rides to help manage crowd flow around the parks. Guests are more likely to gravitate towards rides with lower wait times rather than long wait times. Disney can use this to manipulate the way crowds move during the day. This is based purely on speculation but there is some logic to this theory. This allows Disney to help spread out crowds in the park rather than having them bunch up in specific areas.

Does Disney Increase Wait Times to Sell Lightning Lane?

More cynical parkgoers may speculate the biggest reason is that guests are more likely to purchase Lightnig Lane access. But we saw common inflated wait times at Disney prior to the introduction of Lightning Lane and previously Genie+ (aka “paid FastPass”) so I do not believe this accusation has much merit. This has become a popular complaint among frequent Disney guests though but this is not a new scenario at either Disney park for wait times to be overstated. Even if the wait times have the potential to be shorter than stated, they are not so short as to justify this criticism.

Rides that also are more efficient at loading guests will often have overestimated ride times compared to rides that tend to load slower depending on the age of ride or the type of ride vehicles used. For example, the posted wait time for the Haunted Mansion will often be more than the actual wait time itself since the ride is fairly efficient at loading guests quickly. Often the cast members can get guests loaded on rides like this more quickly than the projected wait time.

For attractions that are less popular, the wait time can often be inflated just because the wait time estimate itself might purely be based on the time it takes to walk the queue and get to the attraction. Since those attractions are just generally less congested, it's more likely the wait times will be overestimated.

Whatever the reason may be, it is helpful to arrive at the parks with the knowledge of actual vs. posted wait times at Disney to help plan your day.

How Does Disney Decide Ride Wait Times?

Have you ever been handed a little red tag on a lanyard by a cast member when you enter a ride queue? These tags used to be given often to guests sporadically in line as a way to get a snapshot of what the current wait time is. Once the red tag reaches the cast member at the loading area, the wait time would often be updated to reflect the time that the guest waited.

Now that Disneyland is using Magic Bands it can track wait times through guest Magic Bands like Walt Disney World does. Although the red tags may still appear in lines, we have seen them within the last few years although other guests have reported they were discontinued ages ago. 

Depending on the ride, if the queue is visible you can even try to eyeball the length of the wait. This is something we commonly do with Indiana Jones Adventure at Disneyland. Indiana Jones Adventure has an outdoor queue before it goes into the temple. If the guests are lined up in the queue outside the temple, the wait time posted is likely accurate if it's long. If there's no queue outside the temple, the wait time is likely short and also not worth using a Lightning Lane for!

Disneyland Wait Times

Some of the most common examples of inflated wait times for Disneyland will be for the main headliner attractions towards the end of the night especially before parking closing. Examples of these attractions include:

• Space Mountain
• Indiana Jones Adventure
• Matterhorn Bobsleds
• Big Thunder Mountain
• Mickey and Minnie's Runaway Railway
• Radiator Springs Racers
• Guardians of the Galaxy: Mission BREAKOUT!
• Incredicoaster

These are the most common attractions guests will jump in line for right before park closing so because of that, you will see high inflated wait times for these rides at the end of the night.

Disney World Wait Times

Some of the most common examples of inflated wait times for Walt Disney World will be for the main headliner attractions towards the end of the night especially before parking closing. Examples of these attractions include:

• Seven Dwarfs Mine Train
• Peter Pan's Flight
• Space Mountain
• Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure
• Frozen Ever After
• Test Track
• Flight of Passage
• Expedition Everest
• Rise of the Resistance
• Slinky Dog Dash

These are the most common attractions guests will jump in line for right before park closing so because of that, you will see more inflated wait times for these rides at the end of the night. The ride that is absolutely notorious for doing this is the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at Magic Kingdom. This ride is often going to be at least half the posted wait time when you get in line before park close. Flight of Passage is another common offender for the over-estimated wait time at park close that can be at least half the posted wait time if not less.

In my personal experience, I have experienced over-inflated times more often when at Walt Disney World than at Disneyland especially towards the end of the night.

Disney Ride Breakdown Wait Times

Part of the reason for over-estimating wait times at Disney is also to account for any potential ride breakdowns. There are a few rides that are notorious for breaking down like Indiana Jones Adventure and Matterhorn Bobsleds at Disneyland and Rise of the Resistance at both parks. 

Rise of the Resistance is a bit of a finicky ride and goes down often which makes this ride the most difficult to assess accuracy on posted wait times. Guests might even end up waiting longer than the posted wait time if they experience a ride breakdown while in line. This is why this attraction is often worth the purchase of Individual Lightning Lane. 

Once a ride comes back up after a long breakdown, the instant wait time posted when the ride opens (as long as the queue is empty) will be 5 minutes. But keep in mind that the ride can easily become clogged up with guests faster than the wait times on the apps can keep up with. This is a situation where eyeballing the crowd outside the ride is a good idea. It may be wise to come back later rather than join a large hoard of people clamoring to experience the ride once it goes back up.

Haunted Mansion Unique Wait Time

Another attraction to keep in mind is the unique wait time posting for the Haunted Mansion. Whenever you see the wait time posted at 13 minutes, this means the attraction is actually a walk-on. This is true for both Disneyland and Walt Disney World. This is a nod to the significance of the number 13 as a spooky number and its presence in the ride itself. Another ride that does this is The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror at Walt Disney World. If you see a 13-minute wait time for either of these rides, it means there is no wait!

When is a Disney Ride a Walk On?

If a ride has a five-minute wait, this means there is no line in the queue and the attraction is literally a walk on. Disney will never go below a five-minute posted wait time just to account for the time to walk through the queue and board the attraction.

When Are Disney Wait Times Accurate?

Disney posted wait times are most accurate from late morning to early evening. In my personal experience, I have found that posted wait times are often at most just 10-15 minutes more than the actual wait time during the day. The wait times will become more inflated as the night goes on, especially in the last hour of the day.

The best way to monitor the wait times when in Disneyland is to use the official Disneyland app and the My Experience App when in Walt Disney World. For those who want to stay until park close, just remember that the rides are often a far lower wait than what is posted on the app!

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